Sunday’s meeting between the Denver Broncos and Houston Texans suddenly takes on postseason weight in Week 13, with these teams pushing toward playoff spots in the AFC.
Denver is the hottest team in the conference, bringing a five-game winning streak to Texas, while Houston had a three-game run snapped last Sunday but has four wins in its last six games.
As it stands, these clubs are No. 8 and No. 9 in the AFC pecking order, and a victory on Sunday would give the winner the inside track to a Wild Card spot.
I break down the NFL odds for this important AFC affair and give my best free NFL picks for Broncos at Texans on Sunday, December 3.
Broncos vs Texans odds
Broncos vs Texans predictions
Russell Wilson isn’t the main reason the Broncos have won five straight games. But the veteran quarterback also isn’t hurting Denver’s success, by any means.
Wilson has been a steady force in this offense but isn’t posting mind-blowing metrics during this successful span. He’s thrown for more than 200 yards just once in those five games, completing almost 72% of his passes with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions.
These modest passing numbers make sense when you consider this Sean Payton offense is handing off on almost 45% of snaps and playing one of the more methodical paces in the league, running a play every 30 seconds — third-slowest in the land.
You can also forgive Wilson for not airing it out against a slate of strong pass defenses, with the Broncos taking on teams like Cleveland, Minnesota, Buffalo, and Kansas City — all of which rank Top 13 in EPA allowed per dropback. The Texans pass defense isn’t on that same level.
While Houston has been stout against the run, rival passers have picked it apart this season. The Texans sit 24th in EPA allowed per dropback, giving up 7.3 yards per attempt and watching opposing QBs post a sterling passer rating of 92.5. It’s all boiled down to an average of 252.5 passing yards against.
Wilson’s NFL player props for Week 13 have his passing total as low as 218.5 yards (Over -114) versus the Texans. Given Houston’s horrendous passing defense and the game script for Sunday, the Over holds solid value.
As mentioned, the Texans are solid at stopping the run, and that will force Payton to put the ball in the hands of Wilson more often. Given Denver is a 3.5-point road underdog, bookies expect it to trail in this contest, and that puts an emphasis on a quicker pace and the passing game.
Another factor that feeds into an Over bet from Wilson’s arm is that this Week 13 game is being played indoors on the fast track at Reliant Stadium. It’s the Broncos’ first indoor game all season, so Wilson’s targets will thrive on that clean, quick field.
Player projections for Wilson range in Week 13, with some models sitting below 200 yards and other boasting a ceiling closer to 240 yards through the air. More respected models sit on the plus side of 220 yards for the Broncos’ QB, and I’ll give those the benefit of the doubt with everything else pointing toward Wilson picking up his passing production.
My best bet: Russell Wilson Over 218.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Broncos vs Texans same-game parlay
Russell Wilson Over 218.5 passing yardsRussell Wilson Over 1.5 passing TDsCourtland Sutton Over 57.5 receiving yards
+291 at FanDuel
Wilson faces a much weaker Houston pass defense compared to past opponents and plays indoors for the first time this season.
Wilson has a passing touchdown in every game this season, and both the matchup and game script paint a picture for a bigger passing performance.
Someone’s got to catch those passes from Wilson, and Courtland Sutton has been his favorite guy. Sutton tops the team in targets, and averages 9.33 yards per target indoors for his career.
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